Jaylen Waddle

LAB REPORTS

By: The Lab

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Jaylen Waddle Poised for a Breakout Campaign in 2026

During the offseason, the Denver Broncos acquired Jaylen Waddle and a 2026 fourth-round pick from the Miami Dolphins in exchange for Denver’s first-round pick (30th overall), a third-round pick, and a fourth-round pick. Waddle, the former sixth overall pick in 2021, now finds himself in an ideal situation for a breakout campaign; let's dive into why below.

During the 2025 season, Bo Nix led the NFL last season in pass attempts, yes, even more than Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford, both of whom led elite offenses in 2025. Waddle now enters the chat as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in a pass-happy offense entering his sixth NFL season at 27.6 years old. On the other side of the coin, the Dolphins ranked 30th in the NFL last season in pass attempts.

Even with a low-pass-volume offense in Miami during the 2025 season, Waddle clearly showed he still has gas left in the tank. He proved to be one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL; he was sixth in FDPRR (first downs per route run), 10th in YPRRR (yards per route run), 10th in EPA, and 13th in EPX. While his efficiency metrics were elite, his production fell short with 64 receptions (100 targets), 910 receiving yards, six touchdowns, and 12.1 fantasy points per game (25th). The lack of bottom-line production last season, which was driven by the poor passing attack in Miami, presents a strong buy-low window on Waddle, and we are seeing him steam up draft boards as a result.

Verdict

The Broncos' projected pass volume alone should help Waddle increase his overall opportunities and production, and if his efficiency metrics remain intact, it will result in a massive breakout with high-end WR2 upside.

What Does Waddle's Competition Look Like?

Courtland Sutton, who will be 31 this season, was once viewed as the team's No. 1 option, but fantasy managers who invested in him last season know it was a struggle. Sutton was 85th in separation, 35th in YPRR, 35th in FDPRR, and 57th in contested catch rate. Additionally, he ranked fourth in the NFL last year in total routes run, yet he still earned a modest 21.6% target share and a 21.1% target rate. The volume alone is what allowed him to finish as WR11 last season, but I’m not buying it, especially with a younger, more efficient receiver like Waddle now in the mix.

When you look at the Broncos offense as a whole, they also resigned 27-year-old J.K. Dobbins to a two-year deal. While he is a productive runner, he has yet to play a full season in his seven-year NFL career and has experienced multiple injuries.

RJ Harvey, the other Broncos running back and former 2025 second-round pick, was extremely inefficient when given a starter role. On the season, he was 65th in true yards per carry, 41st in breakaway runs, and 46th in EPX. Harvey is better known as a pass-catcher, and the Broncos' identity will run through the pass game and third-year quarterback Bo Nix. I expect head coach Sean Payton to lean on his shiny new toy (Waddle), whom they traded a first-round pick and two additional picks for.

Payton has been known for featuring alpha WR1's in his offense; think Michael Thomas back in 2018 and 2019 with the Saints, where he finished as a top-10 wide receiver and dominated target share. Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant are not serious threats in the passing game, because if they were, the Broncos would not have sought out Waddle and traded valuable draft capital to do so.

Where is Waddle Currently Ranked and Who You Should Draft Him Over

Right now, Waddle is ranked WR21, and in half PPR redraft formats, I would confidently draft him over guys like Ladd McConkey, Luther Burden, Davante Adams, and Jameson Williams, all of whom are going in the same neighborhood. Waddle has the upside with this new offense to be a top 15 wide receiver.

LFX Rankings have him as the WR22, and if you are on the clock in the late fourth or early fifth round of your drafts looking for a wide receiver with upside, don't hesitate, because Jaylen Waddle is your guy.

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