Starts, Sits, and Splits: Week 1
Welcome to The Delta Duo’s FIRST EVER Starts, Sits, and Splits for Week 1. Each week we'll identify two Starts at each position, two Sits at each position, and a Split: one player where the two halves of the Duo are split in our decision. We’ll both make our case... and let you decide! We will also feature the Kick-A** Kicker of the Week! A kicker who, between their own skill and the stadium they are playing in, is a no questions asked, insane smash start, LOCK for those with kickers in their fantasy football league.
Week 1 Quarterbacks:
Starts:
Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals: With 20.5 projected points based on my week 1 model, he is my QB8. The Buccaneers have a 23.5-point implied total and he is playing against the 5th-worst pass defense by EPA last year. I project 32 attempts for 221 yards and 3.1 carries of his own. His projected points range of outcomes is 13-33 points, with a median of 19. The data also indicates that he has a 40% shot at a top-12 finish. This will be a pass heavy game, and Baker has a new contract and a reputation to defend. He battled injuries last year and will come back with a vengeance in game one. He’s someone I am excited to start this week. [Wilson]
Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals: Justin Herbert opens up week one at home against a weak Arizona defense. Coming off a year allowing over 28 points per game, Mike McDaniel’s retooled Chargers offense will strike deep. Herbert finally has the OC he needs to release his full potential. With a more experienced wide receiver corps and potential superstar running back, the Chargers offense will roll over the Cardinals, making Herbert an easy week one start. [MC]
Sits:
Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: With 18.0 projected points based on my Week 1 model, he is my QB21. The Packers have a 22.5-point implied total and he is playing against a top-2 pass defense by EPA last year. I project 29 attempts for 215 yards, and 2.8 carries of his own. His projected points range of outcomes is 10-33 points with a median of 16. The data says he has a 32% shot at a top-12 finish. His floor and chance of being a QB1 this week are both fairly low, and I think this offense will need some time to get into form this season. [Wilson]
Daniel Jones – Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens defense has a lot of talent that never reached its full potential last year...that will stop week one. With a difficult secondary consisting of Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins, Daniel Jones is going to have a tough time spreading the field and making plays. Expect Jonathon Taylor to have a solid game against a weaker Ravens D-line. I believe the Colts will feed him the ball rather than risk the downfield attack. Daniel Jones may be a good play over the course of the year, but I would sit him week one. [MC]
Week 1 Running Backs:
Starts:
D’Andre Swift – Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: With 13.4 projected points based on my Week 1 model, he is my RB13. The Bears have a 24.8-point implied total and he is playing against the 7th-worst run defense by EPA last year, a great matchup historically. I predict 12.2 carries, 0.8 of them at the goal line, and 3.2 targets out of the backfield. His projected points range of outcomes is 9-20 points with a median of 13. He has a 30% shot at a top-12 finish. This is a huge range; one with a respectable floor and a fantastic ceiling. He just got paid, and is a smash play this week. [Wilson]
Breece Hall – New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: I expect a vastly improved Titan defense to have an immediate impact on the game, especially on the D-line, but the Jets know how Saleh does business. I’m projecting a huge leap in Breece Hall’s performance this year with a year over year gain in points per game, and it starts with a heavy workload in week one. With Garrett Wilson helping to spread the field, Breece Hall will rack up check downs and a reasonably heavy running load. If he can find his way into the endzone, I believe he can have a monster performance well exceeding consensus rankings. [MC]
Sits:
Jacory Croskey-Merritt – Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: With 8.6 projected points based on my Week 1 model, he is my RB35. The Commanders only have a 20.0-point implied total and he is playing against the 12th-best run defense by EPA last year. I project 9.1 carries and 2.1 targets out of the backfield. His projected points range of outcomes is 5-17 with a median of 7 and I only project a 9% shot at a top-12 finish. He is incredibly ceiling dependent. His median ppg for this matchup sits at the low end of his range, so my projection leans on his best weeks, and I don’t think this will be one of his best weeks. [Wilson]
J.K. Dobbins – Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: When healthy, J.K. has been an electric back and he is drafted and started based on that knowledge. I’m placing my bet on the Chiefs defense containing a back that already feels the effect of a committee backfield. I expect a heavy passing attack this week, which might serve Dobbins well in a PPR format, but I don’t expect him to see the same volume and production that most people have come to expect.. I’m fading him this week; it's an easy sit for me. I hope he stays healthy and performs at his ceiling, but week one is not it. [MC]
Week 1 Wide Receivers:
Starts:
Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints: With 12.7 projected points based on my Week 1 model, he is my WR16. The Detroit Lions have the 2nd-highest implied point total (28.2) against the 12th-best pass defense by EPA last year. I project 6.0 targets, an 18% target share, and 77% of the snaps. He is a long-range player, so even with only 6 projected targets, each of those targets should have big-play potential. His projected points range of outcomes is 7-22 with a median of 13, which is a solid number. He has a 19% shot at a top-12 finish. He is explosive and relies on long-yardage targets, and I anticipate he will convert on enough of them to be a solid WR2 in your lineup this week. [Wilson]
Jaylen Waddle – Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: Steve Spagnulo’s defense experienced a significant turnover in the offseason. His veteran-led secondary may gel over the season, but he lacks the star talent he had with the departure of Trent McDuffie to the Rams. Jaylen Waddle carried an expensive contract with him to Denver, and I expect his star power to shine brighter now that he has a quarterback that can feed him. Divisional rivalries always carry a risk on the offensive side, but I lean towards the offense in week one and the vibes are telling me that Waddle has a big game. If he can stay healthy, he will likely see significant success with the Broncos. [MC]
Sits:
Xavier Worthy – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: With only 9.7 projected points based on my Week 1 model, he is my WR46 this week. The Chiefs have a 23.2-point implied total and he is playing against a top-5 pass defense by EPA last year. I project 5.1 targets, a 14% target share, and 68% of the snaps. His projected points range of outcomes is 3-23, but he only has a median of 7. He has a 15% shot at a top-12 finish. He is a player that has a massive range of outcomes, and this week I feel pretty bad about the matchup. He is a ceiling-dependent player and his median finish sits extremely low within his range, meaning he typically finishes with low points and has a few spike weeks. Don’t bet on tomorrow being a spike week. [Wilson]
Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Not sure if I’m a Packers doubter or Flores truther, but I see the Vikings defense setting the tone week one. Jayden Reed is one of the most explosive players on the Packers offense, but Green Bay’s crowded group of pass-catchers makes his weekly volume difficult to predict. Jordan Love has shown that he is comfortable spreading the ball around, leaving Reed dependent on a touchdown or a big play to return consistent fantasy value. He will have explosive weeks throughout the season and he could land one this week, but there are too many capable options competing for targets to trust him in week one. With a complex set of defensive schemes coming at Jordan Love and minimal tape to study ahead of time, I expect the Vikings defense to hold the Packers in check. Sit Jayden Reed. [MC]
Our Super Split for Week One...Wan'Dale Robinson:
Wilson’s Data: Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR12
MC’s Vibes: Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR38
That’s a whopping 26 spot difference! So…What’s the deal? We’ll both make our case and you can decide:
Wilson: The data has told me that Wan’Dale Robinson is a sleeper that will smash, not just for week one, but the entire season! This week, I project 13.4 points for Robinson in his debut with the Titans. The team has a low implied point total (20.5), but they are playing against the worst pass defense in the league by EPA last year. I project 8.8 targets, a 26% target share, and 73% of the snaps. He has a solid range of projected points outcomes (8-22), with a median of 14. The data says he has a 16% shot at a top-12 finish. He is MUCH safer than his projection reads: More of his weeks land near the top of his range than the bottom. He’s on a new team, and has a new head coach. He’s going to come out of the gate swinging, and have a fantastic week 1.
MC: Wan’Dale’s performance in New York was unfairly bloated by a significant target share on short-yardage plays and a super star void left by the injury to Malik Nabers. I do believe he adds a new dynamic to Cam Ward’s passing offense, but with the Titans coming off a reasonably underwhelming offensive season, I don’t see Robinson’s addition leading to a significant turnaround in their passing game. I’m interested to see the QB-WR connection with Cam Ward, and his sophomore year is likely to see some development from his rough rookie performance. That being said, I still don’t see a good enough reason to start an otherwise forgettable WR that relies on easy check downs for PPR starts.
Week 1 Tight Ends:
Starts:
T.J. Hockenson – Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers: With 7.6 projected points, he is my TE11 for Week 1. The Vikings have a 24.0-point implied total and he is playing against the 11th-worst pass defense by EPA last year. I project 4.5 targets, a 13% target share, and a 63% snap share. His projected points range of outcomes is 3-15 with a median of about 7, and I predict he has a 28% shot at a top-12 finish. His projection is around his median, so this is an average matchup instead of a smash start, but he will get opportunity in this game and that makes him worth a spot in your lineup. He is a veteran that the Vikings offense can rely on as they get their feet under them in this new season. Start him with confidence. [Wilson]
Sam LaPorta – Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints: Sam Laporta is a big name that’s been forgotten with the new favorite TE stars in Arizona and Las Vegas. Although injuries and other superstars in Detroit have been the focus of most fantasy pundits, I expect a big season from LaPorta this year. Week one against the Saints is a clear start and if he can find his way into the endzone, he could easily find himself in the Top 5 TEs for week one. [MC]
Sits:
Brenton Strange – Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns: I have always loved Brenton Strange, but with 6.2 projected points, he is my TE25 for this week. The Jaguars have a 24.5-point implied total, which is great, but are playing against a top-4 pass defense by EPA last year. Yes, they lost some important defensive pieces, but they weren’t totally gutted as a defense. Also, Strange has a lot of competition for targets. Although there is a good implied point total, I only project 4.3 targets, a 12% target share, and for Brenton to see 74% of the snaps. His projected points range of outcomes is 2-14, with a low median of around 6. I project a 17% chance at a top-12 week. He’s not an aggressive avoid, but I don’t think he has the ceiling in this game to be worth starting over other options you may have on your team or the waiver wire. [Wilson]
Jake Ferguson – Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Dak’s weapons are potent, but with the addition of George Pickens and the hype around Flournoy, I don’t expect Ferguson to be the startable asset he once was. The New York Giants are coming in with a new head coach in John Harbaugh that carried the Ravens to 20 years of defensive dominance. I expect him to carry that mentality into his new role in New York. Ferguson is definitely someone to watch because he has the potential to pop off any week, but I’m avoiding him week one until we get a sense of the Cowboy’s offense. [MC]
Now the moment you've all been waiting for...
Week 1's Kick-A** Kicker is…Spencer Shrader!
While he’s our 2nd ranked kicker for this week (Cameron Dicker is our highest ranked week 1 kicker), he is playing at a venue with an 87.9% accuracy rate for home kickers, and although he has a small sample size of NFL kicks (19), he has a whopping 94.7% accuracy. I anticipate the Colts will get their offense moving, but not be able to finish the drives while the Baltimore Ravens defense just wears them down. I think there will be a lot of kicking attempts and he will make them ALL. Start him with SMASHING CONFIDENCE as our Kick-A** Kicker of the week.
