Jordan Mason ADP Smasher
Does he win out the RB1 job in Minnesota
LAB REPORTS
The Case for Jordan Mason Smashing His ADP
Jordan Mason is currently being drafted as the 38th running back across all major formats, per FantasyPros. FantasyPros also ranks him as the 38th RB and the 118th overall player across 80 different experts in PPR formats. In this article, I will make the case for Jordan Mason being a sleeper pick this season.
2025 Season Review
Last season was a tough season for Mason, Justin Jefferson, and really anybody affiliated with the Minnesota Vikings Offense. The Vikings offense was putrid last season, ranking 26th in PPG, 28th in pass YPG, and 23rd in rush YPG. Compare those numbers to 2024 when the Vikings ranked 9th in PPG, 11th in YPG, 5th in pass YPG, and 19th in rush YPG.
The obvious blame falls on then-1st-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy, who failed to be even an average QB. McCarthy's struggles are well documented, so I won't dive into them here, but it's important to note how destructive J.J. McCarthy was to Jordan Mason's production. If you want a great article about McCarthy's struggles, Bryan DeArdo does a great job highlighting them here: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/j-j-mccarthy-qb-timeline-how-former-top-10-pick-lost-starting-job/.
The Vikings traded for Jordan Mason on March 16th in the 2025 off-season from the San Francisco 49ers. Mason finished last season with 758 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, and 14 catches for 51 yards. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry in a semi-split backfield with veteran Aaron Jones Sr.
The Vikings offensive line (AKA The Minnesota Moving Company) was in shambles all season. Superstar Left Tackle Christian Darrisaw came into the season still rehabbing a torn ACL and MCL from the 2024 season, and he only ended up playing 10 games in 2025. Veteran Center Ryan Kelly missed 8 games due to concussions. Both Donovan Jackson and Brian O'Neill missed time due to injuries.
Podcaster and football analyst Brett Kollmann has often stated, "The offensive line sets the floor for rushing production, and running backs set the ceiling." When you combine the offensive line injuries in 2025 with the historically terrible QB play from McCarthy, Carson Wentz (shoutout to my NDSU alum), and Max Brosmer (literally the worst Vikings game I've ever watched), it's clear that Jordan Mason (and the entire Vikings offense) had a very low floor.
Coaching Landscape
Kevin O'Connell, the head coach and offensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings, has traditionally been a pass-first play caller who emphasizes explosive plays downfield. Since KOC was hired as head coach, his offensive pass YPG ranks in the NFL: 2nd (2022), 1st (2023), 5th (2024), 30th (2025). His offensive rush YPG in those same years: 28th (2022), 29th (2023), 19th (2024), 23rd (2025).
On the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings remained an elite unit despite the offensive struggles. Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores (lovingly referred to as B-Flo) is an absolute maniac. His scheme is complex and took multiple years to implement, but in 2024 it dominated the NFL. The defense ranked first in takeaways with 33 in 2024 and 9th in 2025 with 22.
The two biggest drive killers are takeaways and pressures. B-Flo's defense ranked second in sack rate and pressure rate in 2025 with a 9.9% sack rate and a 19.9% pressure rate.
Heading into 2026, it was clear that the offense negatively impacted the Vikings' ceiling. KOC reiterated this in an interview with Paul Allen; he said, "really leaning on our defense, trying to run the football, not turn it over, and play smart football."
It appears KOC has learned from the dismal 2025 season and wants to rebuild the offense around a running game featuring newly announced starting QB Kyler Murray and running backs Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones Sr.
Other Review Notes
Competition - Mason's only real competition for carries is 32-year-old Aaron Jones Sr., who played only 12 games last season. Jones Sr. is clearly regressing due to age, and he shapes up to be the change-of-pace back while Jordan Mason is the early-down hammer in 2026. In terms of fantasy football, it is vitally important to nail ambiguous backfields in drafts. The Vikings backfield is certainly ambiguous, with Aaron Jones Sr. having a consensus ADP of 120 as the 41st RB and Jordan Mason with an ADP of 118 as the 38th best RB.
Kyler Murray effect - The Vikings brought in Kyler Murray to be the starting QB for 2025. Murray has previously been an elite rushing QB, but he suffered a Pedal Foot Sprain in 2025 and missed 12 games that season. He also suffered a grade 3 ACL tear in 2022 and missed 13 games over the next 2 seasons. These injuries have hampered Murray's athleticism and rushing upside. Not to mention that KOC offenses have traditionally not utilized QBs as rushers. I am not concerned about Murray vulturing significant rushing touchdowns or yards from Jordan Mason.
2026 Fantasy Season Outlook
Jordan Mason is in line for his best professional season to date in 2026. We have discussed the reasons for his "meh" 2025 season at length, so let's see what has improved heading into this year.
The obvious change to discuss is Kyler Murray leading the offense. Under McCarthy, the Vikings' offense cratered in EPA/Play to -.12, which ranked 28th in the NFL. Heading into 2025, SharpFootballAnalysis projects the Vikings for 22.5 PPG, which is up 2 PPG from 2025. Mason will benefit from this increase in team scoring by scoring more TD's in 2026. FantasyPros projects Mason for 6.1 TDs in 2026, but I am taking the over on this, and I am projecting him for 9 TDs.
I've noted that the Vikings offense is more committed to running the damn ball in 2026. Not only will the Vikings be more committed to the run, but they will also be starting 2026 with a fully healthy offensive line. 4for4 projects the Minnesota Vikings to rank as the 10th-best unit in the league.
This is reflected by FantasyPros' projected 878 rushing yards for Mason in 2026. I'd also take the over on this, as I anticipate Aaron Jones Sr. missing at least a few games this season. I have Mason projected for over 950 yards.
LFX currently has Jordan Mason projected as the 39th RB in PPR. I have Jordan Mason projected as the 30th RB in PPR.
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