Austin Riley
Lab notes
LAB REPORTS
Austin Riley
Austin Riley's 2026 season has been notably below expectations, with a .221 average and sapped power and RBI numbers, raising concerns about his performance and potential decline.
As of 8/11/2026, he is on pace to hit .221, with 19 HR, 79 RBI, 66 runs, and 10 steals. Per FantasyPros preseason projections, the 29-year-old was projected to hit .282, 28 HR, 85 RBI, 81 runs, and steal 2 bases. Coming into the season, Riley was being drafted as the 5th-best third baseman and in the top 60-ish, depending on league format.
Woes
Riley has been viewed as a premium power bat at the hot corner since he became an everyday player in 2019. From 2021-2023, he mashed 108 homers, which ranked 6th overall and led the 3B position.
However, since then Riley's health and production have declined. From 2024-2025, Riley failed to hit 20 HR, and he failed to play more than 110 games.
In 2024, Riley missed 14 games with an intercostal muscle strain, and he was hit by a pitch on August 19th and missed the rest of the season with a fractured right hand.
In 2025, Riley was placed on the IL on July 12th with a strained abdomen and missed 8 games. Riley had season-ending core muscle surgery and missed 52 games as a result.
Additionally, Riley's long-time hitting coach, Mike Brumley, was tragically killed in a car accident on 6/15/2024. Brumley was Riley's personal mentor and his hitting coach since 2018. Here is a post-game interview where Riley discusses his relationship with Brumley.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=305569185965112
Clearly, injuries and tragic circumstances were hampering Riley's ability to stay healthy and focused from 2024-2025, so what has gone wrong in 2026?
Is Riley Experiencing An Aging Decline?
One of the first things that age affects is a hitter's ability to hit the fastball. Typically, this is correlated with a drop in bat speed, but Riley has remained elite (91st percentile) in that category this season.
Per BaseballSavant, Riley's production vs fastballs has dropped each season since 2023.
2023 vs fastballs: 22 HR, .292 BA, .530 SLG, .280 xBA, .554 xSLG, 92 Ks
2024 vs fastballs: 11 HR, .249 BA, .435 SLG, .271 xBA, .527 xSLG, 64 Ks
2025 vs fastballs: 9 HR, .239 BA, .409 SLG, .230 xBA, .419 xSLG, 75 Ks
Hitting the fastball has gone from Riley's strength to his weakness.
2027 Outlook
I still believe that Riley can return to his previous form as a yearly 30 HR player. The drop in production vs fastballs is absolutely concerning, but his bat speed has remained elite, which is encouraging.
I will stay bought in on Riley in roto/category leagues until his bat speed begins to decline.
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