Round 4 Has League-Winning Upside: My Best Values and Biggest Risks
Round 4 time
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I’m really excited about Round 4 this year. There are so many players in this range who I think have legitimate league-winning upside, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if a few of them are being drafted in Round 1 this time next year.
Round 3 was pretty easy for me. There were a handful of players I really wanted, and my goal was to leave that round with at least one of them. Round 4 feels different. This is where I start seeing young players who could take a massive jump, proven players getting a discount, and a couple guys where the only thing really holding me back right now is health.
Based on FantasyPros ADP right now, this range includes Emeka Egbuka, Ladd McConkey, Colston Loveland, Cam Skattebo, Garrett Wilson, Travis Etienne Jr., Bucky Irving, Jaylen Waddle, Tyler Warren and Luther Burden III. I’m also carrying Zay Flowers into this article because he just missed the Round 3 cutoff.
There are a lot of guys here I would draft. These are the ones I’m looking at the hardest.
Zay Flowers
Zay technically missed Round 3, so I’m cheating a little bit here. I don’t care.
If I’m sitting there in Round 4 and Zay Flowers is still available, he’s one of my easiest picks in this range. He just put up 86 catches for 1,211 yards and five receiving touchdowns, and he’s still only 25 years old.
That’s what I like about Zay. I’m not projecting some breakout we’ve never seen before. We just watched him have the best season of his career, he’s attached to Lamar Jackson and there’s still room for more touchdown production.
If I can get that after my first three picks are already made, I’m interested every time.
Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson might be my favorite value in the entire round.
Last year was basically a lost season. He played only seven games and finished with 36 catches for 395 yards and four touchdowns. Obviously that’s not what anyone drafted him for.
But that’s also why we’re getting the discount now.
The year before, Wilson caught 101 passes for 1,104 yards, and we’ve already seen him command huge volume throughout his career. Now Geno Smith is throwing him the football, and I’m willing to bet on the talent coming back.
Could Garrett burn us again? Sure. But in Round 4, I’m not drafting last year’s stat line. I’m betting that one injury-shortened season didn’t suddenly erase the player we’ve watched for the rest of his career.
This is exactly the type of player I’m talking about when I say some of these guys could be first-round picks next year. If Garrett gets back to being Garrett, nobody is getting him in Round 4 again.
Bucky Irving
Last year was rough for Bucky Irving. There’s no way around that.
He played only 10 games, rushed for 588 yards and averaged 3.4 yards per carry. That’s a huge drop from his rookie season when he ran for 1,122 yards at 5.4 yards per carry and caught 47 passes.
So which version are we getting?
I’m willing to bet the injuries played a pretty big part in what we saw last year.
At RB20, I don’t need Bucky to suddenly become the RB1 overall. I just need him to look more like the explosive running back we saw as a rookie. If he gets back anywhere close to that efficiency, Round 4 could end up looking really cheap.
I’m buying the bounce back.
Colston Loveland
I originally had Loveland on the risk side of this article.
I’ve changed my mind.
He already put up 58 catches for 713 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie, and everything coming out of Bears camp has me more interested in what Year 2 could look like.
Normally, I’m not rushing to take a tight end at the beginning of Round 4. There are too many running backs and receivers I still want.
Loveland might be the exception.
This isn’t a rookie tight end we’re hoping eventually figures it out. He already showed us he can produce in this offense. Now we’re betting on another year with Caleb Williams, another year in the system and another step forward.
That’s where the league-winning upside comes in for me. If Loveland takes a big Year 2 jump and separates himself from the rest of the tight end position, this could be the last year you ever get him anywhere close to Round 4.
TE3 is definitely a price, but I’m starting to think he might actually be worth paying it.
The Two Risks I’m Watching
I want to be really clear with both Cam Skattebo and Luther Burden III.
These are not players I’m fading.
My concerns with both are extremely injury-based. If we get closer to Week 1 and they’re healthy, practicing and ready to go, they are absolutely players I want to draft.
Right now, I just can’t completely ignore the injuries because we’re drafting in August.
Cam Skattebo
I really like Skattebo.
He was awesome before getting hurt last year, finishing with 617 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns in only eight games. Stretch that kind of production across a full season and it’s pretty easy to understand why people are excited.
The problem isn’t the player. It’s the ankle.
We’re talking about a running back coming off a major injury and being drafted near the beginning of Round 4. That’s enough for me to be a little cautious right now.
But this could change fast.
If Skattebo looks good through the rest of camp and enters Week 1 without restrictions, I’m right back in. I’m not scared of the talent. I’m not scared of the opportunity. I just want to know the player I’m drafting is healthy.
Healthy Week 1 Skattebo? I’ll draft him.
Luther Burden III
This one changed for me recently too.
I really like Burden and I still think there’s a big Year 2 ceiling here. He flashed as a rookie and started looking much more comfortable as last season went along.
Now he’s dealing with the groin injury, and that’s really the only thing moving him down for me.
For a second-year receiver, I’d much rather see him on the field getting reps and continuing to build chemistry than losing valuable time in August.
But I’m not suddenly out.
If Burden is healthy and ready for Week 1, I’m still drafting him. And if the injury scares enough people that his ADP starts falling, I might actually end up liking him even more.
Burden is a risk for me right now. He is not an avoid.
How I’m Playing Round 4
My favorite values right now are:
1. Zay Flowers
2. Garrett Wilson
3. Colston Loveland
4. Bucky Irving
Then I have Cam Skattebo and Luther Burden III as the two situations I’m watching the closest.
And again, those two aren’t fades. If they’re healthy going into Week 1, I want them too.
That’s why I’m so excited about this round. There are guys here who already have proven production, young players who could take another massive step, injury discounts and breakout bets. There are players in this group who I genuinely think we could look back on next August and say, “How the hell was he going in Round 4?”
Those are the rounds that can win you a fantasy league.
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