Round 2 Is Where the Real Value Lives
It may be the most critical round of your draft
LAB REPORTS
Im going to say something that probably sounds backwards. I think youre getting better value in Round 2 this year than you are in Round 1.
Theres so much talent sitting in this range, and more importantly, I think there are fewer busts here than there are at the top of the draft. Round 1 is where you pay full price for certainty and sometimes dont get it. Round 2 is where you get most of that same production without the premium. I cant cover everyone in this range, but here are the guys I think are easy clicks, plus two Im actively avoiding.
Quick Note on How I Get These ADPs
Something I didnt explain in my Round 1 piece. All of my ADP references come from Sleeper, 12 team, 1 point per reception. Thats the format I actually draft in, and honestly thats where the big boys play. Different platforms will give you different numbers, sometimes by a full round or more, so if a guy looks off compared to your league, check your own platform before you panic.
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
I get the hesitation. Miami is being projected as one of the worst teams in football, they let Tua go, Tyreek and Waddle are both gone, and the skill group around Achane went from top 10 to basically dead last. On paper it looks like a guy stuck on a bad team.
Heres why Im buying anyway. New head coach Jeff Hafley came over from Green Bay, and one of his stated directives is that he wants an offense that establishes the run. New OC Bobby Slowik comes from the same Shanahan tree, which means outside zone concepts that get Achane into space. Add Malik Willis at quarterback and you have a legitimate read option threat back there. Play action off a run heavy scheme is exactly the setup that gets Achane open on the dink and dunk stuff hes best at.
Oh, and hes coming off 1,350 rushing yards and his first Pro Bowl, finished 5th in the league in rushing, and led the entire NFL at 5.7 yards per carry. He also just got paid on a four year extension.Heres the part people forget though. Even with that lackluster offense around him last year, he still finished as the RB6 in half PPR. ESPN put it best. Hes the star of that offense and its not close. Bad team or not, the touches are coming.
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Last year Jeanty burned a lot of fantasy managers, and I was one of them. In my home league I was the guy who spent a first round pick on him. That stings for a whole season.
But heres what I keep coming back to. He still finished as a top 12 back. He did that on a Raiders offense that scored a league worst 14.2 points per game. That wasnt a talent problem, that was a good rookie squeezing an RB1 finish out of one of the worst situations in football.
Now the situation actually gets better. New head coach in Klint Kubiak, an upgraded offensive line, and real quarterback play for the first time in his career. Kubiak named Kirk Cousins the starter to open camp, with number one overall pick Fernando Mendoza pushing him and getting first team reps. Either way thats a massive upgrade over what Jeanty had to work with last year. The difference this year is you dont have to spend a first round pick to find out.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
This is the guy I feel like Im talking about every single summer. Chase Brown always seems to be undervalued relative to what he actually produces, and this year is no different.
Start with what he did last year. 1,456 scrimmage yards and 11 total touchdowns on 301 touches. His first 1,000 yard rushing season, plus career highs in receptions and receiving yards. He finished 11th in the entire NFL in yards from scrimmage, 8th among running backs, and landed as a top 10 fantasy back. Thats not a fluke season, thats a three down workhorse.
Now heres the stat that actually sold me. Brown averaged less than 2 yards before contact per attempt last year, meaning he was getting hit in the backfield constantly behind that offensive line. He was one of only two running backs in the entire league to do that and still finish top 10 in PPR. The other guy was Christian McCaffrey. He forced 46 missed tackles and averaged 3.1 yards after contact per attempt. He was creating everything himself.
And he did most of it without Joe Burrow. Burrow missed 9 games with the toe injury. When he came back in Week 13, Brown caught 25 of his 26 targets over that stretch with 3 touchdown grabs. If Burrow gives them a full healthy season, Brown is a lead back with no real competition behind him in one of the better offenses in football. Im not sure what else people are waiting to see.
Two Guys Im Avoiding in This Range
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals
A late second round pick is a lot of fantasy capital for a player whose own coaching staff keeps hedging on his workload. When OC Nathaniel Hackett was asked directly whether that running back room has a starter, he didnt name Love. Then on Love specifically, all he offered was hes definitely a rookie, hell keep growing every single day.
Now to be fair, theres real pushback on that quote. Some are pointing out Hackett had spent that same press conference talking about how everything is new for every rookie, so it may not be the shot at Love it sounds like. Fine. But heres the thing that bothers me more than the quote. Through the first two open practices of camp, Love has been running behind Tyler Allgeier. Thats not a media narrative, thats what the depth chart actually looks like right now.
Conner is back but hes coming off a season where he played just three games before foot surgery ended his year. Trey Benson is back from his meniscus procedure. Allgeier came in this offseason. Thats four bodies for one workload, and the guy Im being asked to pay a second round pick for is currently third in line at practice. Im letting somebody else find out, and Ill happily circle back on him as a buy low around Week 4 or 5 once the picture clears up. Let's see some actual usage in the hall of fame game. I may need to change my stance on this when I see more
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Nabers is going in the middle of the second round on Sleeper right now, and I just cant do it. Its genuinely impossible to know whats going on with him.
He had a second cleanup procedure on the same knee. His own GM has said he expects him ready, while the head coach has been noticeably less committal. He wasnt placed on the PUP list to open camp, which is good news, When the people inside the building dont sound like theyre reading from the same page, thats not a Round 2 risk I want on my roster. Granted he looks good in practice.
Let somebody else draft him. Ill watch from a distance and revisit if the price ever reflects the actual uncertainty.
The Bottom Line
Round 1 is where you pay for the name. Round 2 is where you pay for the situation, and this year the situations in this range are legitimately better than the price tags suggest. Achane and Jeanty are both guys the market is discounting for reasons that have more to do with their teams than their talent. Love and Nabers are the opposite, priced on what could happen instead of what we actually know.
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