Paul Skenes
LAB REPORTS
Paul Skenes Closes the First Half with a 3.57 ERA: What's in Store for Him in the Second Half?
The Pittsburgh Pirates have surprised many in the first half of the 2026 MLB season with a 50-47 record and seven wins in their last 10 games heading into the All-Star Break. Another Surprise? Their NL Cy Young Award winner in 2025 and NL Rookie Of The Year in 2024, Paul Skenes, has struggled (by his standards) with a 3.57 ERA. Should Fantasy managers be concerned? Let's dive in below.
Surface Data
Skenes was a consensus first-round pick in fantasy baseball this year and was arguably the top pitcher alongside Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. On the surface, Skenes is 8-8 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts over 108 1/3 innings. Not bad, right? Well, he owns a 2.37 career ERA and posted a 1.97 ERA over 32 starts in 2025 and a 1.96 ERA over 23 starts in 2024. So, sure, fantasy managers could be disappointed based on the bottom-line production.
Tuff Stuff from Paul 😏 pic.twitter.com/ZiJqXSuaou
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) July 12, 2026
He has had a handful of “blow-up” starts, including seven earned runs in Philadelphia on July 1 and five earned runs in his first start of the season, in which he went only ⅔ of an inning, which is part of why his ERA is inflated.
Under the Hood
When we take a peek under the hood, the biggest thing that stands out is his 66.9 percent LOB (left-on-base) rate in 2026. In 2024, it was 85.6 percent, while 2025 followed suit with an 82.4 percent. This means he has not been as effective at stranding runners on base as in the past few seasons. That dip of nearly 20 percent has inflated his ERA because when we look at his ERA estimators, he owns a 2.74 xERA, 2.97 FIP, and 3.09 SIERA. Most, if not all, of his estimators once again align with his career estimators (2.50 xERA in 2024, 2.65 xERA in 2025).
Now, one noteworthy thing is that his season fastball velocity is down 1.2 mph compared to 2025; however, Skenes has not publicly said anything about arm fatigue and/or injury. Additionally, he is still generating a 29.4 percent whiff rate on his four-seamer, which aligns with his 2025 rate of 29.6 percent. Regardless of the dip in velocity, he ranks in the 86th percentile for average fastball velocity (96.9 mph) and still has a Baseball Savant page covered in red.
What Should We Do With Skenes Moving Forward?
The answer here is simple. Take a deep breath and hold. If you have the option to buy low and package a top-20 arm and a hitter for Skenes, I would be looking to make that type of move, as it has league-winning upside. The Pirates are competing in the NL, currently sitting two games back in the NL Wild Card race, and are backed by a strong offense and a young rotation that includes Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Skenes. For the Pirates to make a deep run, they will need their Cy Young to be special down the stretch.
Ultimately, nothing under the hood suggests Skenes is declining or experiencing any issues, based on his underlying data or pitch arsenal. LFX Rankings list him as the No. 3 pitcher in fantasy baseball, which I agree with.
Explore The Lab.
