Kade Anderson's Ceiling: Cy Young Dreams, Realistic Expectations
LAB REPORTS
The left-handed pitcher Kade Anderson capped off a stellar season at LSU by throwing a 10 strikeout complete game shutout in the first game of the 2025 College World Series finals prior to being drafted 3rd overall in last years MLB draft by the Seattle Mariners. In a lot of ways the stars had to align for the Mariners organization, which has an excellent track record of developing starting pitching, to even have the opportunity to select Anderson. Anderson was widely considered the best pitcher in college baseball. The Mariners only had a 1.53% chance to get a top three pick in the 2025 MLB draft, but they defied the odds and got the number three pick at the MLB draft lottery on December 10th, 2024, which could prove to be a franchise altering night.
I will cover Kade Anderson's profile/pitch mix, what makes him a consensus top three pitching prospect in the sport, a few player comps, when we could see him make his big league debut, and the major question I have about his ceiling in the MLB.
Let's start with the profile of Anderson:
Physicals:
- 6’2, 180 pounds
- Wiry, projectable frame
- Room to add more strength
Delivery:
- High three quarter slot
- Repeatable, consistent delivery
- Easy deception created through concealment and release point
Pitch Grades (20/80 Present/Future Grades):
- Four seam fastball 50/55
- Slider 55/60
- Curveball 60/60
- Changeup 55/60
- Command 55/60
- Control 55/60
Kade Anderson is one of the most advanced pitching prospects I have seen in recent memory. He has a four pitch arsenal full of plus pitches that can be located all over the zone. Anderson effectively gets ahead in counts, doesn’t walk hitters, and strikes hitters out, all great signs for an elite pitching prospect. He has a good understanding of how to tunnel pitches, and he hides the ball well out of his hand with a shorter arm swing from his high three quarter arm slot, which creates easy deception. The key factor for making his fastball play above some of its more generic underlying metrics is deception.
As far as pro comps for Kade Anderson go, the one I’m sure a lot of us have heard is New York Yankees LHP Max Fried, and for good reason. Despite the obvious comparisons of similar physical makeup and both of them being southpaws, the comparison really becomes intriguing when you look a little further. Both pitchers have an exceptional ability to locate multiple plus breaking balls and a fastball that won't blow hitters away with velocity but plays above its underlying metrics due to deception created from their respective releases and from hitters having to worry about multiple other plus offerings. Another fun comp is LHP Cole Hamels. Hamels’ changeup was the definition of an 80 grade pitch. While Anderson’s changeup isn’t quite on that level, it’s still a plus pitch. Both pitchers find success in their ability to locate multiple plus pitches to all quadrants of the zone while keeping hitters guessing through excellent sequencing and deception.
The question everyone wants the answer to: When will Kade Anderson make his Mariners debut?
I’m sure by now you’ve likely seen or heard about Kade Anderson's dominance on social media, sports radio, or even the Mariners broadcast. He has gotten off to a blistering hot start to his pro debut. Through his first 12 starts in AA, Kade has thrown 61.2 innings while having a 1.02 ERA, 13.14 K/9, 1.17 BB/9, 1.60 FIP, and a 2.35 xFIP. He is also in the midst of a 27.2 inning scoreless streak. This is one of, if not the most dominant, pitching stretches from a prospect in trackable minor league history. So why is he not being called up? The simple answer is the Mariners already have a starting pitching logjam with lots of controversy already ongoing about the current use of piggyback starts and six-man rotations. Kade does not currently have a clear path to being a starter for the Mariners right now.
What could change his path to starting in 2026 is a mid season trade involving one of the Mariners starters. While this seems more likely to occur in the off season, RHP Luis Castillo would be the only pitcher I could realistically see being dealt before the 2026 trade deadline. Outside of trading Castillo, it would likely take an unfortunate injury to one or more of the other starters to open the door for Anderson to make big league starts this year. The likely non-trade/injury related outcome for Kade Anderson's first major league pitch will be sometime in August/September after the MLB trade deadline out of the bullpen as the Mariners prepare for a playoff push.
Justin Toole (Mariners Director of player development) and the rest of the player development staff will also be carefully managing his workload leading up to the end of the season. He reached 119 innings last year with LSU, I would expect him to reach the 130-140 inning mark this year.
Does Kade Anderson have a path to winning a Cy Young award?
I feel about as good as I can about any pitching prospect that Kade Anderson will turn into a reliable No. 2/3 type starter. I start thinking a lot deeper when the thought of being an “ace” or winning a Cy Young Award in the future gets brought up. Unfortunately for us (the public), we don't get a lot of access to minor league pitching metrics outside of AAA and select other minor league environments. Looking at some of the metrics we did get back in spring training, some of my concerns start to pop up about if Anderson can become a true ace. While I have talked about how he elevates his fastball to play above the numbers with great sequencing and deception, it still is a generic fastball shape that I think will be susceptible to some damage in the majors. He averages 93-94 MPH on his four seam fastball and generates close to 16 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). Both these traits mirror the MLB average in 2025 for his high three quarter release slot.
When we talk about Cy Young winners and aces in the sport, I think about extreme outlier traits. For Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, it’s absurd velocity and one or two 70/80 grade carrying pitches. Even for the elite pitchers without triple digit velocity, we often still find other outlier traits. With Chris Sale it’s an extreme arm angle. Sale throws from a lower three quarters arm slot and has drastic movement on a slider thrown with the same arm speed and the same release point as his four seam fastball that has kept MLB hitters guessing since 2010. I'm not sure if I can truthfully identify a projectable 70/80 grade carrying trait in Kade Anderson's profile. Increasing the fastball's velocity by a few ticks or improving his fastball/changeup shape would be his most likely route to unlocking one of those exceptional qualities. It's not a guarantee, but it's totally possible for a pitcher as good as Anderson to change some traits from great to elite.
The results Kade Anderson has produced in the minor leagues so far have been impossible to ignore, and at this point there’s little left to debate about his talent and pitchability. Only time will tell whether he settles in as a reliable No. 2 starter or ascends to even greater heights, becoming the first Seattle Mariners pitcher since Félix Hernández to capture a Cy Young Award.
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